Exa Revenue DiagnosticFY27 Q3 · data as of 16 Sep 2026
Segment
Region
Segment × Region
Quarter
Bridge from opening to ending ARR
Click a bar to see what sits behind it. Grey bars are
levels; green and red bars are movements. The quarter's opening and ending ARR are the same
recognised, spot basis used everywhere else — MAX(usage, commit/12) × 12.
Show detail for
Detail
Fastest moving region × source cells
Split by
Measure
Pipeline created per month
Created date, gross commit ARR on the opportunity. 31 opportunities carry a creation date after the 16 Sep as-of date, running to March 2027; they are excluded here.
By source — volume against conversion
Win rate is closed opportunities only, all history. Inbound is the outlier: high volume, lowest conversion.
Created ARR, last 12 months by source
Region × source
Open pipeline as it stands today
By stage — gross against stage-weighted
By close quarter — and whether the cycle can support the date
August to September growth — the rate the forecast actually applies
Growth assumption against the last three months
Month-on-month growth, every month on record
Accounts — sorted by momentum
Billing state
August consumption vs September estimate — log scale, median dividers
Breaking out
Small in August, larger in September. Real growth, but too small to close the gap.
Carrying the book
Large and still growing. Protect these first.
Cooling
Large in August, softer in September. Where the forecast risk actually lives.
Dormant
Small and flat. Little to defend, little to gain.
Dot size is July recognised ARR, clamped. 281 of 378 accounts move by exactly −0.32% in September, so most points sit on the diagonal. That flatness is a property of this dataset, not a finding.
Level
What the field has a view on
Like for like: gross against gross
Like for like: net new against net new
How a gross commit call becomes net new ARR
Detail
FY27 Q3 commit call, week by week
Where the field and the model disagree, by rep
Both bars are net new ARR. The field call is translated
into that unit first — gross × the rep’s historical accuracy × their netting
ratio — because comparing a gross number to a netted one is the error this whole model exists
to stop. Click a rep, in the chart or the table, to list their deals below.
FY27 Q3 deals behind the call
Quarter
Roll up to
Plan against the analytics forecast, by cell
Click a cell to see what is behind it
Coverage — gross pipeline against what plan still needs
Below 1.0x the pipeline cannot cover the remaining plan even if every deal closes at full gross value, before any netting for revenue already in the book.